This was to me, definitely one of the more interesting and important bunch of elections held in years. The process riddled with many firsts and contradictions, pathetic politics and aggressive electioneering. But, as Gilles Verniers pointed, ‘’the significance of these results remains by far outweighed by the concerns raised by the deteriorating nature of the electoral process.’’
In a covid-inflicted house , with 'Results 2021' seeming something completely disconnected with reality , I got abreast of the analyses curve quite later, a large part of which was centered around the larger questions pertaining to the results’ impact on national politics, Congress’ existential crisis, LDF’s historic win, the limitations to BJP’s expansionist juggernaut etc., the following four takeaways constitute my key, standout points:
Approach to elections
Elections in India have dramatically changed. The commitment and trust that Indians exhibit in the process have only increased but they have become far more acrimonious, data and strategy driven. While we have gotten rid of the large gender gaps in voting, voter intimidation tactics etc., the competitiveness of today’s elections hinges on the extreme with new tools including the media in all its forms, money and even the naked partiality of the Election Commission as seen recently.
In this context, the talk of a ‘Bengal Template for halting the BJP’ doesn’t really weigh, in my opinion. Sure, it can be an opening of sorts with the TMC’s spectacular victory despite all odds, limiting the BJP’s might but reading into it, even too much, just bears out basic lessons coupled with proactive strategy formulation and management.
Parties will really have to catch up with the local issues and devise a clear, alternative way to cater to them through their campaigns, manifestos etc. There is sufficient data to show the decisive power of the ‘Woman vote’ in multiple elections, particularly Bihar and Bengal but that has no meaning unless issues of welfare and delivery (which are intimately linked to what plays out in their psyche as voters) are touched upon efficiently, which is what Mamata did, very targetedly.
A strong & credible face and meaningful reinvention is the other rule in contemporary politics. UP for instance, which goes to the polls next year and is being discussed also in the light of the Bengal result, will likely have nothing to do with it. Amid the ravages of the pandemic and misgovernance of the Adityanath government in general, the Samajwadi Party still faces a huge challenge with regard this second rule.
In India, an incumbent is more likely to lose than not. But the strongest pro-incumbency was seen in Kerala, followed by West Bengal and Assam. The popularity of these incumbents added more significantly to the main opposition’s challenges in these states (the Congress, that is in Kerala and Assam) than any other factor. Sure, it came in late in Assam, had a questionable but strong alliance, a campaign that gained much traction but lost steam as it progressed for various reasons but remove all of this, and it may still have ended in the same position.
2. Bearing on Federalism
Federalism has been a consistent theme dominating Indian politics since the adoption of the Constitution and has only deepened. Enter Modi. Ironically, for an ex-CM who seemed keen on further deepening it and who, as the Prime Ministerial candidate rode on the back of issues such as corruption at the top, coalitional fighting, strong regionalism, and the general lack of transparency, accountability, efficiency and responsiveness, his government at the Centre seems to have unleashed in the name of ‘Cooperative Federalism’, a form of it that is frankly baffling. Fora like the NITI Aayog, GST Council, for all their indispensability have contributed more to conflicts than genuine devolution and empowerment.
To be sure, all governments have been accused of imposing their agendas on states and misusing their powers and the state governments have also been complicit in deep centralization and not wanting to fulfil their constitutional obligation of devolving powers to local governments. But with moves like Demonetization , the abrogation of Article 370 , the Farm bills and other key legislative amendments , all the way to COVID management , Centre-state relations have only soured , a lot of which has been very personalized in the sense that every major scheme has a PM prefix in its name , every initiative - a centralized stamp , and every election an attempt of the BJP to further its agenda of cultural hegemony - which have succeeded to an extent , thanks to the political alignment between most states (BJP ruled) and the Centre .
Resistance from strong regional parties and culturally, richly distinctive states is only natural as the results also indicate. Now Mamata at the helm in Bengal, Stalin in Tamil Nadu and Vijayan in Kerala will only add to and amplify disgruntled voices across states, trying to extract for their states what is rightfully theirs, making it an important plank on which to position their politics.
As the political map of India changes, the Centre must be more than willing to tone down its ‘coercive’ federalism and restore some sense of sagacity.
3. On Communal Politics
Simply put, while Tamil Nadu and Kerala results have vindicated the notion of there being virtually no space for Hindutva politics to thrive there, West Bengal and Assam have both exposed the limits to communalization and made a case for its political utility.
We saw the vocabulary of the BJP campaigns across states full of terms like Jai Shri Ram, Begum, Khala, Love Jihad, Tushtikaran (appeasement) etc. While it kind of spectacularly failed to fit in the Bengali Hindu's mind, Assam was a different story where the BJP put the Assamese identity issue above this.
The decline of the Left in Bengal has widened the space for the Hindu right and the Mahajot alliance in Assam led by Congress comprising of Ajmal’s AIUDF failed to effectively counter the BJP narrative.
The Lok NITI CSDS post-poll survey revealed that in Tamil Nadu, twice as many voters held a negative sentiment about the BJP than a positive one. Significantly, not only was this apprehension about the BJP seen among the DMK’s alliance’s voters, close to half of whom described BJP’s growth being bad for the state’s social fabric; a plurality of the AIADMK+ ‘s voters held a more negative than positive view about the BJP.
4. On the Indian National Congress
Congress will likely continue to be itself. Analysis followed by Paralysis. The fact remains that for all its equanimity and in-fighting, it does fairly well in proportion to the effort it puts in.
But the only real loser these elections, Rahul Gandhi and company will find it harder to mum the voices of dissent and make a transition from the Sonia to a full-fledged Rahul Congress.
Many have pointed that the Congress will have to sooner or later come around the fact, for it to be an efficient focal point for any third front- like situation (likely to emerge in 2024), that it is now perceived as an equal and in some cases even a smaller political partner across many states. But 3 years can be a lifetime in politics.
In the more immediate term, the TMC or even others could play the role of a more assertive and principled opposition in the House. Congress’ fundamental problem, rather deeply entrenched is difficult to reverse but reinvention on political and ideological moorings is necessary and even possible.
[Sources
The Hindu (for Lokniti-CSDS data)
Live Mint (Gills Vernier's quote)]
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