The state of Tamil Nadu is going to go to polls in a single phase election starting on April 6. Since 1967, the 234 seats in Tamil Nadu have been dominated by the (DMK) and the ruling (AIADMK), to which also the late J Jayalalithaa belonged. However, over the last few decades, a number of smaller parties have emerged. Most notably – this would be the AMMK led by Dhinakaran, the nephew of Sasikala.
DMK will be hopeful of improving upon its 2016 performance when it won just 89 seats as it has allied with the Congress, Left parties and other regional players. It has the backing of the strong Dalit, Christian and Muslim vote due to aligning with the left parties. Meanwhile, the BJP, which has struggled to gain a foothold in the state, has allied with the ruling AIADMK. The AIADMK alliance has tried to counter the DMK-Left alliance by aligning with the PMK in order to secure the Vanniyar vote.
The ABP-C-Voter opinion poll has predicted that the (DMK) will return to power in Tamil Nadu. According to the poll the DMK is likely to get 154-162 of the state's 234 seats, whereas the ruling AIADMK 58-66, the survey further predicted. In terms of vote share, the DMK is expected to get 41 per cent whereas AIADMK 29 per cent.The Times Now C-voter Opinion Poll has predicted a massive DMK win with 177 seats and a 46% vote share and AIADMK second a far second with merely 49 seats and 34.6% voter share. Besides this, almost all opinion polls have predicted a DMK victory. It looks like the party’s decision to appoint Prashanth Kishore as its political strategist has been successful.
The reasons for the polls to predict the loss for AIADMK can be divided into 3. Firstly, a strong anti-incumbency that the state has historically seen. Secondly, the accusation on AIADMK of losing Tamil pride due to the BJP alliance. And lastly, due to there being an absence of a strong leader after Jayalalitha’s demise.
Only on May 2, it will be known if Karunanidhi’s dream of making his son Stalin CM gets fulfilled or EPS continues to stay in control of the State and is able to help AIADMK achieve a hat-trick, becoming the second leader to do that after MGR.
Comments