Lebanon is a country riddled with a myriad of problems. With economic and political crises that have repeatedly pushed the Middle Eastern country into a disaster in making. A glimpse of, rather a striking nature of its problems, was seen on the August 4th blast last year on the port of Beirut. Divided by sectarian violence and political rifts, external players like Syria and Iran have exacerbated the problem to say the least.
March 8 vs. March 14: The two blocs competing for power
Lebanon’s governance system is divided on the basis of “confessions”, or on the basis of the population of three major religious groups: Christians, Sunni and Shi’a Muslims. The presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christian, the prime minister position for a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of the parliament for a Shi’a Muslim. This governance system was shaped at the time of its independence from France in 1943, further strengthened by the Taif Accords of 1989 and its basis was a census conducted in 1932. Lebanon has not held a census since then.
Today, the country is split into two political coalitions- March 8 and March 14.
March 8 refers to the coalition which is pro-Syria and Shi’aite, with big players like the militant group turned political party, Hezbollah; Shi’a Amal Movement and the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). They are supported by neighbouring Syria and Iran, which are critical to the functioning of Hezbollah (below).
March 14 refers to the Sunni/Anti-Syria bloc, consisting of the Future Movement (Christian), the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb (both Christian.) This faction enjoys support from the USA and its allies, namely France and Saudi Arabia.
Over the past few years, particularly since the crisis hit Syria in 2011, the divide between these blocs have deepened and the country is now more polarized than ever. Street fights between the locals in various parts of the country are now a common sight. Key decisions being stalled and formation of governments along with their collapse are a direct consequence of this polarisation and refusal by any of the political factions to compromise to reach a middle ground seems less and less likely.
Corruption is high and various systems of public service are steeped in it. Healthcare is broken and too expensive making it inaccessible to many. The value of the Lebanese Pound has been falling sharply, leading to a depletion in its foreign currency revenue thereby causing the price of food grains like wheat and rice to shoot up.
Hezbollah: A militant group or political party?
Although the Taif Accords called for the dismantling of all local militia groups, Hezbollah argued that its presence is necessary to fight Israeli military forces along the southern border of Lebanon. Since Syria’s civil war began in 2011, Hezbollah forces have fought alongside Bashar-al-Assad's forces to help sustain his government. By the end of 2014, due to the falling in of rebels and refugees from Syria into Lebanon, the latter had the largest refugee population per capita than any other country in the world, averaging to 25% of its total population. This led to a further strain on the country’s already depleting resources and an increase in Shi’a population was met with harsh backlash from the country’s Sunni rebels and political leaders.
Time and time again, Hezbollah has proved to be one of the most destabilising forces that use their military capacity to put Lebanon to war with Israel and also use it to strongarm their wants. It has acted in retaliatory ways whenever met with resistance, which further aggravates proper administration. The group has also been involved in a number of assassinations of Lebanese opposition leaders, including allegedly that of PM Rafiq Hariri. However, two things remain clear:
Their power in the governance of the country has been increasing in terms of the number of seats and key areas they control, including the finance ministry and enjoying a veto power.
Despite all its misbehaving, Hezbollah appears to have the best system set in place to protect and provide for its constituents. Because of their illicit channels of acquiring resources, they are able to keep their core areas stable.
A Hezbollah official put it this way:
We don’t fear for ourselves. However we are targeted, whatever campaign there is against us, it won’t shake us. No, we fear for Lebanon. If things continue to deteriorate, if chaos spreads, then all Lebanese will lose.
Foreign interference
In the next two years that followed the civil war in Syria, they moved to fight inside Syria for the same purpose, now stronger than before, with arms assistance provided by Iran. Although Hezbollah’s relationship with Syria is ideological (fighting for a Shi’a country), its relationship with Iran is more practical and strategic.
Israel has been involved in many fights along the southern border of Lebanon, which has led to clashes with Hezbollah fighters many times over the years, most notably in the 34 day war in 2006.
Saudi Arabia has tried to offer help to the Sunni leaders via monetary aid, but in 2016, it cancelled a $4 billion grant for the Lebanese security forces after Lebanon refused to support it in a diplomatic row with Iran.
France has tried to include Hezbollah in its “initiative” to form a stable government under Hassan Diab, pre-explosion, but now those plans have come to a halt.
The USA refuses to directly deal with Hezbollah because it has been assigned the status of a terrorist organisation and works over them or skirts them while trying to push any reform in the country.
Conclusion
Although Hezbollah is blamed for many of Lebanon’s failures, this claim is only a half truth. Years of institutional failure, political polarization and rivalry and personal greed have set the stage for a perfect disaster. Many reports indicate that all major parties in Lebanon seem to have been involved in varying degrees of corrupt dealings at the port of Beirut which had all gone unnoticed due to ignorance and a lack of will to act.
Reform is a precondition for any assistance to be provided to Lebanon, including the dismantling of Hezbollah for many western forces. France, however, has directly engaged with the group in an attempt to gain some stability in the region.
The problem, many critics say with regards to the USA and Saudi, is that they look at Lebanon’s problem through the:
“prism of Iran. They understand some of the nuances, but they don’t have the patience for it. They have an agenda that needs to be pursued: [countering] Iran.”
Lebanon’s situation was bad even before the blast. External actors should step in and work with all important players, including Hezbollah, without prioritising the weakening of Hezbollah. Their efforts could help bring other political rivals to the table and facilitate the creation of stable and a middle ground. The domestic leaders should also be willing to relinquish some of the patronage networks they’ve set up in state institutions, along with putting a stop to playing blame games, in order to make space for reform. The Lebanese people are growing tired and have been paying the price for too long. Any more polarisation or stalling in decision making will cost them dearly.
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