2020 Israeli legislative election of the Knesset was a political stalemate for the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In spite of the charges for corruption and coercion, Netanyahu was able to secure votes to consolidate a coalition government between his Likud party and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White alliance. Throughout the election campaign, Netanyahu used the Palestinian rhetoric and promises of a full-blown annexation to secure Israeli borders and bring prosperity to the people of Israel in their holy land. While everybody in the international community and the moderate leaders of Israel believed that this was purely election rhetoric which wouldn’t be possible, Netanyahu does not fail to deliver on his promises, no matter how unjust, gruesome, and politically volatile for the Middle East. His plans received an ultimate supporter in a long time Israeli ally across the Atlantic Ocean. Historically, the Presidents of the United States have avoided such a move and used diplomatic means to contain Israel from causing such widespread volatility, but with Donald Trump in power, this does not seem to be quite a case. Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan gave Netanyahu the necessary political backing from the United States that would be required during an attempt of this kind. With nothing but words of condemnation from leaders around the world, and the US blocking any chance of United Nations sanctions against such a breach of International Law, the Middle East might be looking forward to one of the greatest political instabilities in the world history.
Trump-Netanyahu’s unholy alliance
Since the Six-Day War in 1967, Israel has held significant portions of the land in the Jordan Valley on the West Bank. Throughout the 20th century and later, Israel established dozens of settlements in this region which the larger part of the world believes to be annexed Palestinian territory. More than 500,000 Jewish Israelis living in these areas are believed to be illegal settlers and local administration structures set up by the Israeli government to govern these were never supposed to be present. Putting it softly, Trump has been a major supporter of the Israeli government and an opposer of peace in the Middle East throughout his term. US recognition of Jerusalem, a disputed land between the Jews and the Palestinians as the Israeli capital and moving the US embassy to this city attracted severe international backlash with the Emergency Special Session of the United Nations General Assembly even condemning the move. Yet, the US did not stop there and went on to announce a clearly Israel aligned Middle East Peace Plan for Israel and Palestine.
This peace plan envisions permanent Israeli control over 30% of the West Bank and that includes all of Israel’s illegal settlements and the strategic Jordan Valley region. In spite of the Palestinians and the international community rejecting this peace plan, the US and Israel set up a joint committee to map out the areas that Israel can keep. This move takes us back a century when France and Great Britain, the then colonial powers took it upon themselves to chart out the Middle East and started the whole conflict in the first place. This hegemonic behavior of the right-wing leaders like Trump and Netanyahu would once again plague the Middle East. Netanyahu believes that this peace plan gives him considerable leverage on a global scale such that he would get away without a scratch, and it could be very true.
Netanyahu has made sure that his coalition agreement with Gantz allows him to bring the proposal for annexation to the Knesset anytime after July 1st, and he is extremely eager to make this move owing to the US Presidential elections in November. This hurry would mean that Netanyahu would initiate a limited move as the first stage of this operation at the very least before November this year. This eagerness is mainly because of the uncertainty over Trump’s re-election prospects and the clear opposition by Joe Biden, Trump’s Democrat opposition to this Israeli move. If Netanyahu fails to act quickly and Trump is voted out of power then he could bid adieu to his annexation dreams for a very long time.
What does this annexation mean on the ground?
This annexation could permanently destroy any prospects of a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine as the Palestinians wish to have the West Bank as the heartland of the future independent state. The implementation of Trump’s plan would mean that the Palestinians would only have limited autonomy in a fraction of territory that they seek. In addition to this, the Israeli settlements and enclaves which are deemed illegal would stay and the Israeli military would consolidate an overall security control over the West Bank. The situation on the ground would barely change immediately as Israel has controlled the region for more than 50 years now and the Palestinian Authority established by the Oslo Accords has ruled out violence as a response against such a move.
This exposes Israel to a larger risk of conflict in the long run. This could also mark the beginning of an apartheid system in the expanded Israeli lands as Netanyahu has constantly opposed granting citizenship to Palestinians living on annexed lands. The Palestinians would face problems of their own in a situation of this annexation as moving across Palestinian settlements and towns would be difficult with Israel controlling parts of the land. This could also result in Israel using its sovereignty over this region to expropriate Palestinian lands and provide it to the Jewish settlers in the region. The already suppressed and discriminated Palestinians would experience a massive upend to their lives and their suffering would continue to increase as the absence of peace prospects means an end of the Palestinian Authority and they would automatically become subjects of Israel which is far from granting them equal rights and opportunities.
Would Israel pay for its actions?
The global community, including the likes of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, European Union foreign policy chief, Joseph Borrell, the Arab states, and the Palestinian Authority have called this out as a serious violation of International law and warned the Israelis of a danger to its cooperation with the Arab states. However, Netanyahu and Trump know that this rhetoric would not translate into any action owing to both their poor record against Israel in terms of inaction and military action along with the Arab dependence on Israel in times of coronavirus and drying up of Arab oil wells. The Arab States have been cooperating with Israel due to its technological advancement in the fields of agriculture and science, both of which are extremely important to them especially because of the coronavirus outbreak and the economic survival that Israel’s desert agriculture technology would give to the Arab states where the oil wells are now drying up. Israel does not face any risk of international sanctions thanks to its ally United States’ permanent seat in the Security Council.
With Israel not afraid of any consequences for its annexation of the West Bank, the best chance of preventing a violent blow up in the Middle East is to delay these plans until after November when Joe Biden’s election to the POTUS would put an end to Netanyahu’s annexation ambitions. However, with a coalition agreement strongly in place and nothing stopping the eager Netanyahu the odds of peace against annexation are difficult if not impossible.
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