What led the Nobel Peace Prize winning Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, to initiate a military campaign against a powerful region of its own country, driving the populous African nation toward a potentially destabilizing civil war? Here is the timeline of events going way back to 2018, that explains what is happening in Ethiopia today:
APRIL 2018: A TRANSITION IN GOVERNMENT
Ethiopia's previously governing coalition consisting of ethnic groups used to be majorly dominated by The Tigray People’s Liberation Front( TPLF) during the authoritarian rule of Meles Zenawi , up until his death in 2012. But months of anti government protests put a lot of pressure which resulted in the resignation of the then Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn . As a symbol of new beginnings, the ruling coalition named Abiy Ahmed as the new Prime Minister, who was not very well known at the time. In an effort to make good change, Reforms quickly followed as Abiy Ahmed's government released political prisoners, welcomed home exiled opposition figures and promised to open the political space and hold free and fair elections. One of the very shocking reforms that made waves in the region was when he made peace with neighbouring Eritrea after a border war, and promoting similar efforts in the wider Horn of Africa.
OCTOBER 2019: AN EARLY NOBEL PEACE PRIZE
In an effort to recognize the sweeping reforms done by his government, Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize pretty early on, but the Nobel committee stood by it's belief saying that,
"it is now that Abiy Ahmed’s efforts deserve recognition and need encouragement.”
The move was not without a lot of experts raising concerns about whether or not it was the right idea, because trouble had already been slowly, but surely brewing. There was a deadly explosion at a massive rally in the Capital Addis Ababa, which was an attempt at hurling a grenade at Abiy gone wrong. Apart from this, And Ethiopia’s military chief was shot dead by his bodyguard amid a failed coup attempt against the Amhara regional government. Abiy then proceeded to address the nation wearing Military fatigues.
JULY 2020: ETHNIC VIOLENCE IN THE REGION
The military was deployed in the country following civilian outrage of a popular singer Hachalu Hundessa being shot to death. The singer was a powerful voice in the anti government protests before Abiy had risen to power and the general sentiment was rage amongst Ethiopia's populace. As a result, there was a lot of bloodshed. Hundreds of people were killed and many more were arrested in the days that followed the death of the singer. Abiy claimed that the dissidents had refused any talks of peace and had 'taken up arms" in revolt against the government, connecting it to the previous incidents of the grenade attack and the attempted coup. Internet service was cut off for weeks and various human rights groups warned that could may as well be the return of repressive government measures.
SEPTEMBER 2020: GROWING TENSIONS IN TIGRAY
Soon after the government transition in 2018, members of the Tigray ethnic group were purged from positions of power and arrested in corruption and security-related crackdowns , creating a rift between the TPLF governed Tigray region, and the federal government. Feeling increasingly marginalized by Abiy's reforms, the TLPF was well against Abiy's proposition of transforming the ruling coalition of the country into a single Prosperity Party, and decided to not be part of it. The TLPF started to increasingly criticize Abiy's government on various fronts, especially the extension of Abiy’s stay in office. The Tigray region also defied the federal government by holding a local election, which resulted in a situation where each governments started regarding the other as illegitimate. Tigray officials had warned that an intervention by the federal government would amount to a “declaration of war,” and while Abiy then ruled out military intervention, He said that “if the party doesn’t take part in the general election, it won’t be acceptable.” The federal government then further made a move to divert funding to local administrations in Tigray instead of the regional government, greatly angering the TPLF.
November 2020: BRINK OF A CIVIL WAR
On Nov. 4 of 2020, Abiy in the early morning hours announced that he had ordered the military to confront the well-armed Tigray regional government . Abiy said the government’s offensive was in response to an attack by the T.P.L.F. on a military base in Tigray. He also claimed later that day that during the assault, many federal troops had been “martyred” and wounded.
It was impossible to verify Abiy's claims as he did not provide details and early that Wednesday morning, they shut down internet and phone communications in the Tigray region, according to the digital rights group Access Now.
The bombing raids followed that Friday, which has lead to many clashes between the government and local security forces across the region, intensifying the conflict in the region. Ignoring any pleas for International dialogue and to take a step back by the United Nations and the United States, Abiy proceeded to accuse the leaders of Tigray of “criminal hubris and intransigence,” in his televised comments much later.
Following the announcement of the military campaign, Abiy’s government declared a six-month state of emergency in Tigray and in response Tigray officials immediately announced the closure of their airspace, restricted road movement in the region, and declared that soldiers from the Northern Command of the Ethiopian military had defected and sided with the T.P.L.F.
Apart from this reports of possibly hundreds of civilians being massacred with knives and machetes in Tigray are rife , where forces loyal to the local administration and the national military are engaged in fierce clashes.
Amnesty International reported that according to witnesses, the victims were stabbed and hacked to death in the town of Mai Kadra four days ago. These reports could very well lead to an increasingly harrowing conflict, which may stoke more ethnic and other tensions across the countries.
HOW MIGHT THIS CONFLICT AFFECT ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN OF AFRICA?
At a time when Abiy's Government is already knee deep in dealing with major challenges like battling the pandemic, working to boost a debt-laden economy and Abiy's own Oromo ethnic community showing dissaffection towards him, many of whom say they do not see much progress despite his promises of change, A military offensive would seem like the last thing the country needs.
It is feared that an all out war in Ethiopia will be bad not only for country itself, but also for the six neighboring countries surrounding it.
Eritrea could may as well be drawn in by the violence in Tigray as it is now allied with Ethiopia’s federal government . It is also very well known that Eritrea has a deep resentment toward the T.P.L.F for a very long time. Many veterans from the T.P.L.F. who participated in the Ethiopian-Eritrean war between 1998 and 2000 are now part of the Tigray region’s paramilitary forces, meaning the participation of Eritrea in this conflict could incite more violence based on past sentiments. Hence, many see this conflict as a potential destabilizer for the Horn of Africa.
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